recession

bear market

gaming

hardware

consumer discretionary

inflation

s&p 500

supply chains

tech

interest rates

retail

portfolio construction

federal reserve

strategy

information technology

macroeconomics

nvidia

cloud

semiconductors

software

microsoft

alphabet

central banks

cyclical

stocks

crypto

US stock markets took to the skies in the first half of the year

US stock markets embarrassed analysts and took to the skies in the first half of the year

The Stock Market Ran With The Bulls After All

**Why should I care?**

***The bigger picture:*** *No crystal ball.*

This rally is a reminder that expert predictions, while often insightful, are still just predictions – and this year, they didn't quite hit the mark. Stocks have proven to be more than a reliable guard against inflation too, outpacing the rate of price rises. And that’s no shocker: a lot of canny companies have managed to foist cost increases onto customers, cushioning the blow to their own profit margins.

***For markets:*** *Later or later.*

With inflation coming down, investors have been hoping that stock-boosting interest rate cuts could be on the cards sooner or later. But this week the Federal Reserve essentially trashed any prospects of that “sooner” option: the central bank [signaled](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/05/fed-minutes-july-2023-.html) that it’s planning to keep on hiking rates in a bid to fully stamp out price pressures – despite pausing hikes just last month. And that nasty little surprise could make it hard for stocks to continue their upward march.



One driver of that has been the boom in AI: after all, it lit a fire under tech stocks, including the likes of Nvidia and Microsoft, and that’s warmed the entire market. It also doesn’t hurt that the US economy is trundling along much better than anyone expected, with solid, upwardly revised 2% [growth](https://link.finimize.com/external/32002902.0/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY25iYy5jb20vMjAyMy8wNi8yOS9maXJzdC1xdWFydGVyLWVjb25vbWljLWdyb3d0aC13YXMtYWN0dWFsbHktMnBlcmNlbnQtdXAtZnJvbS0xcG9pbnQzcGVyY2VudC1maXJzdC1yZXBvcnRlZC1pbi1tYWpvci1nZHAtcmV2aXNpb24uaHRtbD91dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249ZGFpbHktZXVyb3BlYW4tMDctMDctMjAyMyZ1dG1fc291cmNlPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09RGFpbHklMjBFdXJvcGVhbiUyMEVkaXRpb24lMjBVc2Vycw/63172e561040a812a70ab994Bf8c970f6) in the first quarter helping to keep those recession whispers quiet.



**What’s going on here?**

The stock market didn't just ignore the bearish forecasts in the first half of the year: it decided to run with the bulls.

**What does this mean?**

Analysts were in a serious funk when 2023 first rolled around, predicting a bear market and warning of a looming recession. But it looks like the S&P 500 decided to prove them wrong. See, it’s not just up a bit: it climbed a staggering 16% in the first half of the year, roaring past many pundits’ *full-year* predictions.



News Story

encryptedEmail

planSlug

slugOrId

ContentPieceQuery

viewer

authorization

content

SingleContentPiece_viewer

webSubscriptions

contentPiece

mostPopularTags

features

query ContentPieceQuery(
  $slugOrId: String
  $encryptedEmail: String
  $planSlug: String
) {
  viewer {
    authorization {
      roles {
        isAnonymous
      }
      ...SingleContentPiece_authorization
    }
    ...SingleContentPiece_viewer_4uP6yi
    content(encryptedEmail: $encryptedEmail) {
      ...SingleContentPiece_content
      contentPiece(slugOrId: $slugOrId) {
        __typename
        ...SingleContentPiece_contentPiece
        canonicalLink
        id
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment AccessibleImage_accessibleImage on AccessibleURLImage {
  full
  altText
}

fragment AdvertWrapper_activeProductAdvert on ProductAdvert {
  id
  advertHandle
  destinationUrl
  sponsoringCompany {
    name
    id
  }
}

fragment AnonymousPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
  webSubscriptions {
    defaultWebPlan {
      ...PremiumAccountPromotionPanel_webPaymentPlan_2HyoJ4
    }
  }
}

fragment AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  title
}

fragment AuthorLinkWrapper_author on Author {
  slug
  isActive
}

fragment Avatar_image on URLImage {
  original
}

fragment BannerAdvert_activeProductAdvert on ProductAdvert {
  title
  description
  destinationUrl
  sponsoringCompany {
    name
    id
  }
  wideImage {
    ...AccessibleImage_accessibleImage
  }
  narrowImage {
    ...AccessibleImage_accessibleImage
  }
  ...AdvertWrapper_activeProductAdvert
}

fragment Block_block on ContentPieceBlock {
  __isContentPieceBlock: __typename
  __typename
  ... on TextBlock {
    id
    ...TextBlock_block
  }
  ... on ImageBlock {
    id
    ...ImageBlock_block
  }
  ... on QuoteBlock {
    id
    ...QuoteBlock_block
  }
}

fragment ContentAuthorAndMetadata_author on Author {
  id
  byline
  profilePicture {
    ...Avatar_image
  }
  ...AuthorLinkWrapper_author
}

fragment ContentDownloadBlock_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment ContentDownloadBlock_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...DownloadContentDropdown_contentPiece
  ...LicenseContentButton_contentPiece
  isAvailableToProducts
}

fragment ContentFooter_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  deepLink
  canonicalLink
  slug
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  mostRelevantTags(first: 30) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        ...Tag_tag
        ... on Node {
          __isNode: __typename
          id
        }
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment ContentHeaderDetails_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment ContentHeaderDetails_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ListenButton_contentPiece
  ...ContentPieceBookmarkIcon_contentPiece
  ...ContentDownloadBlock_contentPiece
  id
  title
  deepLink
  canonicalLink
  slug
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
}

fragment ContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...DefaultContentHeader_contentPiece
  ...EvergreenContentHeader_contentPiece
  contentPieceType {
    name
  }
}

fragment ContentMetadata_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  consumptionTime
  dateUpdatedDisplay
  contentPieceType {
    isEvergreen
  }
  author {
    byline
    ...AuthorLinkWrapper_author
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentPieceBookmarkIcon_contentPiece on ContentPiece {
  id
  isBookmarked
  title
}

fragment ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  title
  imageForSeo: headerImage {
    url: full
  }
  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
  id
  ... on PublicContentPiece {
    globalContentPieceId
  }
  byline
  seoTitle
  searchDescription
  canonicalLink
}

fragment ContentPieceSponsor_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  sponsoringCompany {
    id
    name
    link
    logo {
      ...ServerImage_image
    }
  }
}

fragment DefaultContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentHeaderDetails_contentPiece
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  ...ContentMetadata_contentPiece
  id
  title
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  author {
    ...AuthorLinkWrapper_author
    ...ContentAuthorAndMetadata_author
    id
  }
}

fragment DownloadContentDropdownContentPieceRefetch_viewer_1QxYRk on Viewer {
  contentPieceTranslation: contentPiece(slugOrId: $slugOrId) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    isAvailableToProducts
    blocks {
      __typename
      ...DownloadContentDropdown_blocks
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
    keyInsightsBlocks {
      id
      ...DownloadContentDropdown_blocks
    }
  }
}

fragment DownloadContentDropdown_blocks on ContentPieceBlock {
  __isContentPieceBlock: __typename
  ... on TextBlock {
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment DownloadContentDropdown_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  localeMapping {
    languageCode
    contentPieceId
  }
}

fragment EvergreenContentHeader_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment EvergreenContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentMetadata_contentPiece
  ...ListenButton_contentPiece
  ...ContentPieceSponsor_contentPiece
  ...ContentPieceBookmarkIcon_contentPiece
  ...ContentDownloadBlock_contentPiece
  canonicalLink
  id
  deepLink
  title
  slug
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
}

fragment ImageBlock_block on ImageBlock {
  image {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  alt
  caption
  link
}

fragment KeyInsightsBlock_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment KeyInsightsCarousel_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment KeyInsights_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...KeyInsightsCarousel_contentPiece
  ...KeyInsightsBlock_contentPiece
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment LicenseContentButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  isAvailableToProducts
}

fragment ListenButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  trackingTitle
  subtitle
  readingTime
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
}

fragment LoggedInPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
  webSubscriptions {
    defaultWebPlan {
      ...PremiumAccountPromotionPanel_webPaymentPlan_2HyoJ4
    }
  }
}

fragment MainContentSection_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece
  ...KeyInsights_contentPiece
  ...ContentHeader_contentPiece
  ...ContentFooter_contentPiece
  title
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
  readingTime
  isPremium
  deepLink
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  id
  canonicalLink
  byline
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  blocks {
    __typename
    ...Block_block
    ... on Node {
      __isNode: __typename
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment MostPopularTags_tags on GenericTagConnection {
  edges {
    node {
      __typename
      ... on AssetClassTag {
        slug
      }
      ... on ContentTag {
        slug
      }
      ... on GeographyTag {
        slug
      }
      ...Tag_tag
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment Navigation_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment Navigation_tags on GenericTagConnection {
  ...MostPopularTags_tags
}

fragment PaywallBanner_contentPieceType on ContentPieceType {
  isAvailableForFreemium
}

fragment PaywallBanner_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
  ...AnonymousPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4
  ...LoggedInPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4
}

fragment PremiumAccountPromotionPanel_webPaymentPlan_2HyoJ4 on WebPaymentPlan {
  amount
  currency
  currencySymbol
  interval
  promotionApplied(slug: $planSlug) {
    stripeDiscount {
      discountPct
      discountAmount
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment QuoteBlock_block on QuoteBlock {
  quote
  caption
}

fragment ServerImage_image on URLImage {
  full
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_authorization on Authorization {
  ...authorization_authorization
  ...ContentHeaderDetails_authorization
  ...ContentDownloadBlock_authorization
  ...EvergreenContentHeader_authorization
  roles {
    isPreviewingContentAllowance
    isPreviewing
    isAnonymous
    hasPremiumSubscription
    isFreemium
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_content on Content {
  ...authorization_content
  anonymousUserHasPremium
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  ...authorization_contentPiece
  ...MainContentSection_contentPiece
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
    isAvailableForFreemium
    ...PaywallBanner_contentPieceType
  }
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  activeProductAdvert {
    ...BannerAdvert_activeProductAdvert
    id
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_viewer_4uP6yi on Viewer {
  ...PaywallBanner_viewer_2HyoJ4
  ...DownloadContentDropdownContentPieceRefetch_viewer_1QxYRk
  mostPopularTags(first: 10) {
    ...Navigation_tags
  }
  authorization {
    ...Navigation_authorization
  }
  features
}

fragment Tag_tag on GenericTag {
  __isGenericTag: __typename
  __typename
  ... on AssetClassTag {
    name
    slug
  }
  ... on GeographyTag {
    name
    slug
  }
  ... on ContentTag {
    name
    slug
  }
}

fragment TextBlock_block on TextBlock {
  textMarkdown
}

fragment authorization_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isPreviewingContentAllowance
    isPreviewing
    isAnonymous
    hasPremiumSubscription
    isFreemium
  }
}

fragment authorization_content on Content {
  anonymousUserHasPremium
}

fragment authorization_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  isPremium
  contentPieceType {
    isAvailableForFreemium
  }
}


The Stock Market Ran With The Bulls After All

BECOME A SMARTER INVESTOR