consumer discretionary

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asia

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The AI party for stocks is just getting started

Here’s how Goldman expects it to play out over the next decade.

The AI Party Looks Like It’s Just Getting Started

The tech sector has been the superstar performer of the past decade, and with AI potentially commanding the next phase of growth, it’s safe to say it’s not giving up the stage to anyone else.

Generative AI is about to become indispensable, upending the world of work and ultimately delivering a significant boost to global economic growth. In a recent outlook, Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that AI will start measurably impacting US GDP by 2027, before rippling across other economies. Their forecast suggests AI could automate about 25% of labor tasks in advanced economies like the US and Japan, and 10% to 20% of tasks in emerging economies. It’s a good news/bad news story for the economy, resulting in a rise in productivity, as well as a rise in unemployment.

The analysts predict we’ll see AI boost US economic growth by 0.4 percentage points by 2034, and see similar subsequent impacts across other developed markets and some emerging markets. They’re betting that AI will crank up US productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points each year for more than ten years, potentially allowing US companies to rake in more profits – expanding their valuation multiples.

Those gains may not happen in one fell swoop, mind you: they’ll be shaped by how quickly the technologies are adopted, the extent to which AI spending replaces other investments in information and communication technology, the evolving capabilities of AI, and the possible regulatory roadblocks it might face.

And, sure, with those uncertainties, it may seem reasonable to think the market might be headed for another tech bubble – with just a few giants dominating the US market and with their stock concentration rising. But hold up: before you get too nervous, remember that current tech valuations aren’t as stretched as they were in past bubbles. And the tech giants with the biggest returns today generally have solid balance sheets. What’s more, one thing’s for sure: AI is here to stay, and if you haven’t jumped on the bandwagon, you’re not late. A few early birds have scored, but there are plenty more opportunities with potentially massive payoffs down the road.



Quick Take

encryptedEmail

planSlug

slugOrId

ContentPieceQuery

viewer

authorization

content

SingleContentPiece_viewer

webSubscriptions

contentPiece

mostPopularTags

features

query ContentPieceQuery(
  $slugOrId: String
  $encryptedEmail: String
  $planSlug: String
) {
  viewer {
    authorization {
      roles {
        isAnonymous
      }
      ...SingleContentPiece_authorization
    }
    ...SingleContentPiece_viewer_4uP6yi
    content(encryptedEmail: $encryptedEmail) {
      ...SingleContentPiece_content
      contentPiece(slugOrId: $slugOrId) {
        __typename
        ...SingleContentPiece_contentPiece
        canonicalLink
        id
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment AccessibleImage_accessibleImage on AccessibleURLImage {
  full
  altText
}

fragment AdvertWrapper_activeProductAdvert on ProductAdvert {
  id
  advertHandle
  destinationUrl
  sponsoringCompany {
    name
    id
  }
}

fragment AnonymousPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
  webSubscriptions {
    defaultWebPlan {
      ...PremiumAccountPromotionPanel_webPaymentPlan_2HyoJ4
    }
  }
}

fragment AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  title
}

fragment AuthorLinkWrapper_author on Author {
  slug
  isActive
}

fragment Avatar_image on URLImage {
  original
}

fragment BannerAdvert_activeProductAdvert on ProductAdvert {
  title
  description
  destinationUrl
  sponsoringCompany {
    name
    id
  }
  wideImage {
    ...AccessibleImage_accessibleImage
  }
  narrowImage {
    ...AccessibleImage_accessibleImage
  }
  ...AdvertWrapper_activeProductAdvert
}

fragment Block_block on ContentPieceBlock {
  __isContentPieceBlock: __typename
  __typename
  ... on TextBlock {
    id
    ...TextBlock_block
  }
  ... on ImageBlock {
    id
    ...ImageBlock_block
  }
  ... on QuoteBlock {
    id
    ...QuoteBlock_block
  }
}

fragment ContentAuthorAndMetadata_author on Author {
  id
  byline
  profilePicture {
    ...Avatar_image
  }
  ...AuthorLinkWrapper_author
}

fragment ContentDownloadBlock_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment ContentDownloadBlock_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...DownloadContentDropdown_contentPiece
  ...LicenseContentButton_contentPiece
  isAvailableToProducts
}

fragment ContentFooter_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  deepLink
  canonicalLink
  slug
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  mostRelevantTags(first: 30) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        ...Tag_tag
        ... on Node {
          __isNode: __typename
          id
        }
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment ContentHeaderDetails_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment ContentHeaderDetails_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ListenButton_contentPiece
  ...ContentPieceBookmarkIcon_contentPiece
  ...ContentDownloadBlock_contentPiece
  id
  title
  deepLink
  canonicalLink
  slug
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
}

fragment ContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...DefaultContentHeader_contentPiece
  ...EvergreenContentHeader_contentPiece
  contentPieceType {
    name
  }
}

fragment ContentMetadata_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  consumptionTime
  dateUpdatedDisplay
  contentPieceType {
    isEvergreen
  }
  author {
    byline
    ...AuthorLinkWrapper_author
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentPieceBookmarkIcon_contentPiece on ContentPiece {
  id
  isBookmarked
  title
}

fragment ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  title
  imageForSeo: headerImage {
    url: full
  }
  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
  id
  ... on PublicContentPiece {
    globalContentPieceId
  }
  byline
  seoTitle
  searchDescription
  canonicalLink
}

fragment ContentPieceSponsor_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  sponsoringCompany {
    id
    name
    link
    logo {
      ...ServerImage_image
    }
  }
}

fragment DefaultContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentHeaderDetails_contentPiece
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  ...ContentMetadata_contentPiece
  id
  title
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  author {
    ...AuthorLinkWrapper_author
    ...ContentAuthorAndMetadata_author
    id
  }
}

fragment DownloadContentDropdownContentPieceRefetch_viewer_1QxYRk on Viewer {
  contentPieceTranslation: contentPiece(slugOrId: $slugOrId) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    isAvailableToProducts
    blocks {
      __typename
      ...DownloadContentDropdown_blocks
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
    keyInsightsBlocks {
      id
      ...DownloadContentDropdown_blocks
    }
  }
}

fragment DownloadContentDropdown_blocks on ContentPieceBlock {
  __isContentPieceBlock: __typename
  ... on TextBlock {
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment DownloadContentDropdown_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  localeMapping {
    languageCode
    contentPieceId
  }
}

fragment EvergreenContentHeader_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment EvergreenContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentMetadata_contentPiece
  ...ListenButton_contentPiece
  ...ContentPieceSponsor_contentPiece
  ...ContentPieceBookmarkIcon_contentPiece
  ...ContentDownloadBlock_contentPiece
  canonicalLink
  id
  deepLink
  title
  slug
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
}

fragment ImageBlock_block on ImageBlock {
  image {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  alt
  caption
  link
}

fragment KeyInsightsBlock_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment KeyInsightsCarousel_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment KeyInsights_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...KeyInsightsCarousel_contentPiece
  ...KeyInsightsBlock_contentPiece
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment LicenseContentButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  isAvailableToProducts
}

fragment ListenButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  trackingTitle
  subtitle
  readingTime
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
}

fragment LoggedInPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
  webSubscriptions {
    defaultWebPlan {
      ...PremiumAccountPromotionPanel_webPaymentPlan_2HyoJ4
    }
  }
}

fragment MainContentSection_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece
  ...KeyInsights_contentPiece
  ...ContentHeader_contentPiece
  ...ContentFooter_contentPiece
  title
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
  readingTime
  isPremium
  deepLink
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  id
  canonicalLink
  byline
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  blocks {
    __typename
    ...Block_block
    ... on Node {
      __isNode: __typename
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment MostPopularTags_tags on GenericTagConnection {
  edges {
    node {
      __typename
      ... on AssetClassTag {
        slug
      }
      ... on ContentTag {
        slug
      }
      ... on GeographyTag {
        slug
      }
      ...Tag_tag
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment Navigation_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment Navigation_tags on GenericTagConnection {
  ...MostPopularTags_tags
}

fragment PaywallBanner_contentPieceType on ContentPieceType {
  isAvailableForFreemium
}

fragment PaywallBanner_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
  ...AnonymousPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4
  ...LoggedInPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4
}

fragment PremiumAccountPromotionPanel_webPaymentPlan_2HyoJ4 on WebPaymentPlan {
  amount
  currency
  currencySymbol
  interval
  promotionApplied(slug: $planSlug) {
    stripeDiscount {
      discountPct
      discountAmount
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment QuoteBlock_block on QuoteBlock {
  quote
  caption
}

fragment ServerImage_image on URLImage {
  full
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_authorization on Authorization {
  ...authorization_authorization
  ...ContentHeaderDetails_authorization
  ...ContentDownloadBlock_authorization
  ...EvergreenContentHeader_authorization
  roles {
    isPreviewingContentAllowance
    isPreviewing
    isAnonymous
    hasPremiumSubscription
    isFreemium
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_content on Content {
  ...authorization_content
  anonymousUserHasPremium
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  ...authorization_contentPiece
  ...MainContentSection_contentPiece
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
    isAvailableForFreemium
    ...PaywallBanner_contentPieceType
  }
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  sponsoringCompany {
    name
    id
  }
  activeProductAdvert {
    ...BannerAdvert_activeProductAdvert
    id
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_viewer_4uP6yi on Viewer {
  ...PaywallBanner_viewer_2HyoJ4
  ...DownloadContentDropdownContentPieceRefetch_viewer_1QxYRk
  mostPopularTags(first: 10) {
    ...Navigation_tags
  }
  authorization {
    ...Navigation_authorization
  }
  features
}

fragment Tag_tag on GenericTag {
  __isGenericTag: __typename
  __typename
  ... on AssetClassTag {
    name
    slug
  }
  ... on GeographyTag {
    name
    slug
  }
  ... on ContentTag {
    name
    slug
  }
}

fragment TextBlock_block on TextBlock {
  textMarkdown
}

fragment authorization_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isPreviewingContentAllowance
    isPreviewing
    isAnonymous
    hasPremiumSubscription
    isFreemium
  }
}

fragment authorization_content on Content {
  anonymousUserHasPremium
}

fragment authorization_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  isPremium
  contentPieceType {
    isAvailableForFreemium
  }
}


The AI Party Looks Like It’s Just Getting Started

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