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Russia’s near-coup has put a question mark over its stability

Russia’s Looking A Bit Unstable After Its Near-Coup

**What’s going on here?**

Russia just about defused a bombshell attempted coup over the weekend.

**What does this mean?**

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was met with an immediate outpouring of global criticism – and over the ensuing 17 months, voices of dissent within the country have joined that chorus too. Fed up with a dragged-out war that was once pegged to last only a few days, feelings among even previous supporters have soured – with some favoring a more aggressive approach and others pushing for a swift settlement. Those undercurrents led to a near-explosion in recent days, when the Wagner mercenary group staged an armed uprising that shook the Kremlin’s “stable” facade. And while Putin ultimately managed to keep Moscow out of the crossfire with a last-minute deal, it’s clear that the country’s political might isn’t as rock solid as it once seemed.



**Why should I care?**

***For markets:*** *Oily maneuverings.*

Russia might be in the Western world’s bad books, but it’s still a key player in the global supply chain of natural resources. So, when Mother Russia sneezes, the world could catch a cold – or at least, see a shake-up in oil prices – especially with the risk that further turmoil could stop millions of barrels being exported. The US, for one, has taken that threat seriously, drafting plans to keep supply chains moving in case things do get messy. And while last weekend’s crisis was averted, political unrest still has markets on high alert, with oil prices rising on Monday.



***The bigger picture:*** *From worse to worse.*

Putin having a pow-wow with a formerly loyal mercenary group is a pretty clear sign of fragility – and his hasty calls to international friends, assuring them all’s fine and dandy, don’t exactly scream stability either. And while an optimist might think that pressure could help bring this war to a close, the opposite might be true instead: this kerfuffle *could* make Russia increasingly unpredictable on the global stage.



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encryptedEmail

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SingleContentPiece_viewer

webSubscriptions

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mostPopularTags

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query ContentPieceQuery(
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  $encryptedEmail: String
  $planSlug: String
) {
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    id
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}

fragment AccessibleImage_accessibleImage on AccessibleURLImage {
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}

fragment AdvertWrapper_activeProductAdvert on ProductAdvert {
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}

fragment AnonymousPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
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}

fragment AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment AuthorLinkWrapper_author on Author {
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fragment Avatar_image on URLImage {
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fragment BannerAdvert_activeProductAdvert on ProductAdvert {
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fragment Block_block on ContentPieceBlock {
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fragment ContentAuthorAndMetadata_author on Author {
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fragment ContentDownloadBlock_authorization on Authorization {
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fragment ContentDownloadBlock_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment ContentFooter_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment ContentHeaderDetails_authorization on Authorization {
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fragment ContentHeaderDetails_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment ContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment ContentMetadata_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment ContentPieceBookmarkIcon_contentPiece on ContentPiece {
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fragment ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment ContentPieceSponsor_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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}

fragment DownloadContentDropdownContentPieceRefetch_viewer_1QxYRk on Viewer {
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fragment DownloadContentDropdown_blocks on ContentPieceBlock {
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fragment DownloadContentDropdown_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment EvergreenContentHeader_authorization on Authorization {
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fragment ImageBlock_block on ImageBlock {
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fragment KeyInsightsBlock_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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}

fragment KeyInsightsCarousel_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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}

fragment KeyInsights_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment LicenseContentButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment ListenButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment LoggedInPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
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fragment MainContentSection_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment MostPopularTags_tags on GenericTagConnection {
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fragment Navigation_authorization on Authorization {
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fragment Navigation_tags on GenericTagConnection {
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}

fragment PaywallBanner_contentPieceType on ContentPieceType {
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}

fragment PaywallBanner_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
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}

fragment PremiumAccountPromotionPanel_webPaymentPlan_2HyoJ4 on WebPaymentPlan {
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  interval
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    stripeDiscount {
      discountPct
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}

fragment QuoteBlock_block on QuoteBlock {
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}

fragment ServerImage_image on URLImage {
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}

fragment SingleContentPiece_authorization on Authorization {
  ...authorization_authorization
  ...ContentHeaderDetails_authorization
  ...ContentDownloadBlock_authorization
  ...EvergreenContentHeader_authorization
  roles {
    isPreviewingContentAllowance
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}

fragment SingleContentPiece_content on Content {
  ...authorization_content
  anonymousUserHasPremium
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
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  ...authorization_contentPiece
  ...MainContentSection_contentPiece
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
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    slug
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  sponsoringCompany {
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}

fragment SingleContentPiece_viewer_4uP6yi on Viewer {
  ...PaywallBanner_viewer_2HyoJ4
  ...DownloadContentDropdownContentPieceRefetch_viewer_1QxYRk
  mostPopularTags(first: 10) {
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  authorization {
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  features
}

fragment Tag_tag on GenericTag {
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    name
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  ... on ContentTag {
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}

fragment TextBlock_block on TextBlock {
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}

fragment authorization_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isPreviewingContentAllowance
    isPreviewing
    isAnonymous
    hasPremiumSubscription
    isFreemium
  }
}

fragment authorization_content on Content {
  anonymousUserHasPremium
}

fragment authorization_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  isPremium
  contentPieceType {
    isAvailableForFreemium
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}


Russia’s Looking A Bit Unstable After Its Near-Coup

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