over 1 year ago • 1 min
Deutsche Bank is out with the results of its latest investor survey, which on the face of it, makes for grim reading. The overwhelming majority of investors surveyed (74%, to be precise) said this month it’s too early to call an end to the bear market in US stocks.
They expect the S&P 500 (blue line), recently trading around 4,000, to slide to 3,300 (red) before returning to an upward trajectory – and more than half (58%) said that likely won’t happen until next year. What’s more, 80% of the survey’s participants said they expect a recession in 2023.
But maybe the Federal Reserve (the Fed) can take some comfort from the survey: 37% of respondents said they expect the Fed to “get it right” when it comes to their interest rate decisions. That compares to April when just 17% expressed the same confidence.
That said, it’s probably less about the Fed “getting it right” and more that they seem resigned that the Fed’s gotta do what the Fed’s gotta do: further inflation-fighting rate hikes, even if it risks tipping the economy into a recession.
There’s one possible silver lining though: surveys aren’t always the best indicator of future stock market direction. Investors sometimes say one thing and do another. And, besides, those with the gloomiest outlook have probably already positioned their portfolios accordingly.
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