Finimizers Made Some Wild-Card Predictions For 2022: Here’s How Those Panned Out.

Finimizers Made Some Wild-Card Predictions For 2022: Here’s How Those Panned Out.
Paul Allison, CFA

about 1 year ago5 mins

  • Start thinking about your wild-card predictions for 2023, but remember: they have to be surprising events to make the grade. “Interest rates will fall”, for example, just won’t cut it.

  • Stumped for ideas? Think about the surprises that happened this year and consider the opposite. Worldwide deflation’s not a bad call, for example.

  • Keep it plausible: moonshots will win you respect if they come off, but just leave you wanting if they don’t. Give us a thumbs up at the bottom of this page if you want to submit a prediction: we’ll send you a reminder.

Start thinking about your wild-card predictions for 2023, but remember: they have to be surprising events to make the grade. “Interest rates will fall”, for example, just won’t cut it.

Stumped for ideas? Think about the surprises that happened this year and consider the opposite. Worldwide deflation’s not a bad call, for example.

Keep it plausible: moonshots will win you respect if they come off, but just leave you wanting if they don’t. Give us a thumbs up at the bottom of this page if you want to submit a prediction: we’ll send you a reminder.

Mentioned in story

Early this year, we asked you Finimizers to dust off your crystal balls and give us some wild-card predictions for 2022. After a weeklong community discussion, and some creative and logical thinking, you settled on a list, which I’ve whittled down here and presented in no particular order. If you think you can do better, keep an eye out for 2023’s competition. And to get your mind wandering, I’ve given my own long-shot call at the end. Give us a thumbs up if you want to be sent a reminder for next year’s think tank.

Prediction 1: inflation will hit double figures by the end of 2022.

Bravo. Sure, spiking prices were on people's minds at the start of the year, but it’s the boldness of the “double figures” call that stands out. After all, the “inflation is transitory” camp was still relatively well populated until summer 2022. But October’s inflation reading hit an all-time high of 10.6% in Europe, and a 40-year high of 11% in the UK. Across the pond, price rises didn’t quite reach double figures, and they seem to be on a downward trajectory.

Prediction 2: Big Tech will be back in favor and the metaverse will take off.

Oh, not so much. This is a bit of a double strikeout. At this point, the metaverse is still very much virtual rather than any real way of life. In fact, it was Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s doubling down on metaverse spending that sent his firm’s stock price into a tailspin back in October, telling you all you need to know about investors’ views on the matter. Augmented and virtual reality technologies are still on the rise, to be sure, but their being embedded in our everyday lives is years – if not decades – away.

As for the rest of Big Tech, well, some firms – Apple, for example, which is down 19% at the time of writing – have fared better than others. Amazon is down 47%, and Tesla’s down 50% (if you lump Tesla into tech, that is). But they’ve all had a year to forget. The main problem with Big Tech is they’re all experiencing slowing revenue growth. Some of this might be driven by short-term economic weakness, but investors also suspect that it’s a sign of age. We’ll probably have to wait till at least the middle of next year before we know which is the case. But in the meantime, Big Tech bosses seem reluctant to admit their firms’ ages, and continue aggressively spending.

Maybe we should roll this prediction forward into 2023? After all, if there’s one way to ensure you’re never wrong, it’s to perpetually extend your time horizon.

Prediction 3: energy price rises will hit crypto mining volumes, increasing the value of available cryptocurrencies.

It’s a shame no one was clairvoyant enough to foretell of the Luna or FTX debacles to hit the crypto world this year, that would have been NASA-like stuff. It’s true that energy prices have risen, but it’s fair to say that’s had no impact on crypto, as even the OG bitcoin’s price plummeted this year. But maybe there’s a silver lining to all the soap operas: regulators will likely be forced into taking a more active role, and that might be just what’s required for the asset class.

Prediction 4: global warming comes early with a massive monsoon in South Asia. Regional markets collapse with no let-up in supply chain issues. India enters talks with Russia to buy land in Siberia.

Extreme weather events do appear, unfortunately, to be becoming more frequent: Pakistan is one country currently feeling their devastating effects. It’s not clear whether these climate events have already been contributing to global supply chain problems, but they’re certainly not going to help.

The Indian stock index, though, has been a bright spot this year, perhaps as the country’s strong foundations for growth have stolen the spotlight against a dimming Chinese backdrop. So for now at least, the part about global warming hurting regional share indexes hasn’t borne out.

As for India entering talks to buy land in Siberia, well, maybe someone has an inside track on the Indian government. It does seem more plausible than shipping everyone off to Mars, that’s for sure.

Prediction 5: our Max Rothery (VP of Community) launches his own NFT collection that becomes bigger than Bored Ape Yacht Club.

Word has it Max has added to his NFT collection this year with a Ziggurat: a project launched by Mike Shinoda (Linkin Park) that was one of the first mainstream applications of music NFTs. Shinoda’s produced a collection of 5,000 unique audio and visual NFTs on the Tezos chain. Shinoda’s sold out, so Max isn’t alone in his taste. But if you’re blind to NFTs, don’t be led by the blind – sorry, Max. In his own words, “I’m into art and community and I buy things that resonate with me culturally regardless of whether the prices go up or down.” Nice sentiments: here’s hoping they also make you a mint.

As for the bored apes, well, they’re not gathering the attention they once did, and their popularity (and prices) have fallen in line with the various calamities in the cryptocurrency world. But according to nft-stats.com, apes are still changing hands at eye-watering prices. Take a look at the chart below, which shows some recent ape transactions. It’s likely that NFTs as a concept will endure this year’s various crypto fallouts.

Source: nft-stats.com.
Source: nft-stats.com.

So, as we close in on 2023, it’s time to turn your attention to next year's surprises, and as promised, here’s my effort.

Paul’s prediction: Big Tech goes on a massive shopping spree.

Linking back to prediction No. 2, Big Tech won’t want to face the fact it’s getting on in years, so it’ll deploy its sizable war chest in a massive acquisition drive to prop up sales growth. Whether investors like that or not depends on what they buy and how much they pay. My guess is corporate bankers and internal acquisition teams are already working overtime on that.

One last thing: check out the full list of 2022’s predictions here and make sure you join our WhatsApp community to participate in the next go-round.

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