recession

consumer discretionary

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tech

interest rates

federal reserve

information technology

macroeconomics

gold

software

central banks

copper

commodities

stocks

The underrated economic ratio you need to know

And right now, this secret weapon’s highlighting a clear investment opportunity.

The Copper-To-Gold Ratio Is An Underrated Economic Barometer You Need To Know

The copper-to-gold ratio is a sneaky little indicator that can tell you a lot about the economy's true colors. As an industrial metal used in construction, electronics, manufacturing, and elsewhere, copper tends to do well when the economy’s expanding. Gold, on the other hand, is generally seen as a safe-haven asset, and tends to do well when the downside risks to the economy are rising. Divide copper's price by gold's, and voilà: you’ve got a nifty snapshot of growth expectations versus economic uncertainty.

But there’s more to it. Since interest rates are heavily influenced by growth expectations and economic uncertainty (the Fed tends to cut rates when economic activity is dangerously slow, and raise them when it’s dangerously hot), the copper-to-gold ratio is also a great signal of where interest rates might be headed. When the economy sizzles and risks chill out, up goes the ratio – with interest rates typically following suit. As you can see in the chart, that’s exactly what happened in 2021, when the massive jump higher in the copper-to-gold ratio (white line) preceded a massive rise in the 10-year yield (blue line).

On the flip side, when the ratio tumbles, that’s a sign of an ailing economy and rising risks. In those cases, the Fed tends to slash interest rates, as investors scurry toward safe-haven assets like Treasury bonds, driving yields further down. (Remember: Treasury yields fall as their prices rise.)

That brings us to this year, and the copper-to-gold ratio has been slowly sliding down. Now, don't panic – this isn't an "economy-going-off-a-cliff" alarm. But it does highlight the gap between the stock market's swagger and the grittier economic scene. Most importantly, it whispers that bond yields might be too high relative to the macroeconomic environment. That may make Treasury bonds a tempting investment right now: they’re poised to perform well if sentiment sours, but have a dash of safety should economic growth bounce back...



Quick Take

encryptedEmail

planSlug

slugOrId

ContentPieceQuery

viewer

authorization

content

SingleContentPiece_viewer

webSubscriptions

contentPiece

mostPopularTags

features

query ContentPieceQuery(
  $slugOrId: String
  $encryptedEmail: String
  $planSlug: String
) {
  viewer {
    authorization {
      roles {
        isAnonymous
      }
      ...SingleContentPiece_authorization
    }
    ...SingleContentPiece_viewer_4uP6yi
    content(encryptedEmail: $encryptedEmail) {
      ...SingleContentPiece_content
      contentPiece(slugOrId: $slugOrId) {
        __typename
        ...SingleContentPiece_contentPiece
        canonicalLink
        id
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment AccessibleImage_accessibleImage on AccessibleURLImage {
  full
  altText
}

fragment AdvertWrapper_activeProductAdvert on ProductAdvert {
  id
  advertHandle
  destinationUrl
  sponsoringCompany {
    name
    id
  }
}

fragment AnonymousPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
  webSubscriptions {
    defaultWebPlan {
      ...PremiumAccountPromotionPanel_webPaymentPlan_2HyoJ4
    }
  }
}

fragment AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  title
}

fragment AuthorLinkWrapper_author on Author {
  slug
  isActive
}

fragment Avatar_image on URLImage {
  original
}

fragment BannerAdvert_activeProductAdvert on ProductAdvert {
  title
  description
  destinationUrl
  sponsoringCompany {
    name
    id
  }
  wideImage {
    ...AccessibleImage_accessibleImage
  }
  narrowImage {
    ...AccessibleImage_accessibleImage
  }
  ...AdvertWrapper_activeProductAdvert
}

fragment Block_block on ContentPieceBlock {
  __isContentPieceBlock: __typename
  __typename
  ... on TextBlock {
    id
    ...TextBlock_block
  }
  ... on ImageBlock {
    id
    ...ImageBlock_block
  }
  ... on QuoteBlock {
    id
    ...QuoteBlock_block
  }
}

fragment ContentAuthorAndMetadata_author on Author {
  id
  byline
  profilePicture {
    ...Avatar_image
  }
  ...AuthorLinkWrapper_author
}

fragment ContentDownloadBlock_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment ContentDownloadBlock_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...DownloadContentDropdown_contentPiece
  ...LicenseContentButton_contentPiece
  isAvailableToProducts
}

fragment ContentFooter_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  deepLink
  canonicalLink
  slug
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  mostRelevantTags(first: 30) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        ...Tag_tag
        ... on Node {
          __isNode: __typename
          id
        }
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment ContentHeaderDetails_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment ContentHeaderDetails_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ListenButton_contentPiece
  ...ContentPieceBookmarkIcon_contentPiece
  ...ContentDownloadBlock_contentPiece
  id
  title
  deepLink
  canonicalLink
  slug
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
}

fragment ContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...DefaultContentHeader_contentPiece
  ...EvergreenContentHeader_contentPiece
  contentPieceType {
    name
  }
}

fragment ContentMetadata_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  consumptionTime
  dateUpdatedDisplay
  contentPieceType {
    isEvergreen
  }
  author {
    byline
    ...AuthorLinkWrapper_author
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentPieceBookmarkIcon_contentPiece on ContentPiece {
  id
  isBookmarked
  title
}

fragment ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  title
  imageForSeo: headerImage {
    url: full
  }
  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
  id
  ... on PublicContentPiece {
    globalContentPieceId
  }
  byline
  seoTitle
  searchDescription
  canonicalLink
}

fragment ContentPieceSponsor_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  sponsoringCompany {
    id
    name
    link
    logo {
      ...ServerImage_image
    }
  }
}

fragment DefaultContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentHeaderDetails_contentPiece
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  ...ContentMetadata_contentPiece
  id
  title
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  author {
    ...AuthorLinkWrapper_author
    ...ContentAuthorAndMetadata_author
    id
  }
}

fragment DownloadContentDropdownContentPieceRefetch_viewer_1QxYRk on Viewer {
  contentPieceTranslation: contentPiece(slugOrId: $slugOrId) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    isAvailableToProducts
    blocks {
      __typename
      ...DownloadContentDropdown_blocks
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
    keyInsightsBlocks {
      id
      ...DownloadContentDropdown_blocks
    }
  }
}

fragment DownloadContentDropdown_blocks on ContentPieceBlock {
  __isContentPieceBlock: __typename
  ... on TextBlock {
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment DownloadContentDropdown_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  localeMapping {
    languageCode
    contentPieceId
  }
}

fragment EvergreenContentHeader_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment EvergreenContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentMetadata_contentPiece
  ...ListenButton_contentPiece
  ...ContentPieceSponsor_contentPiece
  ...ContentPieceBookmarkIcon_contentPiece
  ...ContentDownloadBlock_contentPiece
  canonicalLink
  id
  deepLink
  title
  slug
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
}

fragment ImageBlock_block on ImageBlock {
  image {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  alt
  caption
  link
}

fragment KeyInsightsBlock_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment KeyInsightsCarousel_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment KeyInsights_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...KeyInsightsCarousel_contentPiece
  ...KeyInsightsBlock_contentPiece
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment LicenseContentButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  isAvailableToProducts
}

fragment ListenButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  trackingTitle
  subtitle
  readingTime
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
}

fragment LoggedInPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
  webSubscriptions {
    defaultWebPlan {
      ...PremiumAccountPromotionPanel_webPaymentPlan_2HyoJ4
    }
  }
}

fragment MainContentSection_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece
  ...KeyInsights_contentPiece
  ...ContentHeader_contentPiece
  ...ContentFooter_contentPiece
  title
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
  readingTime
  isPremium
  deepLink
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  id
  canonicalLink
  byline
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  blocks {
    __typename
    ...Block_block
    ... on Node {
      __isNode: __typename
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment MostPopularTags_tags on GenericTagConnection {
  edges {
    node {
      __typename
      ... on AssetClassTag {
        slug
      }
      ... on ContentTag {
        slug
      }
      ... on GeographyTag {
        slug
      }
      ...Tag_tag
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment Navigation_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment Navigation_tags on GenericTagConnection {
  ...MostPopularTags_tags
}

fragment PaywallBanner_contentPieceType on ContentPieceType {
  isAvailableForFreemium
}

fragment PaywallBanner_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
  ...AnonymousPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4
  ...LoggedInPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4
}

fragment PremiumAccountPromotionPanel_webPaymentPlan_2HyoJ4 on WebPaymentPlan {
  amount
  currency
  currencySymbol
  interval
  promotionApplied(slug: $planSlug) {
    stripeDiscount {
      discountPct
      discountAmount
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment QuoteBlock_block on QuoteBlock {
  quote
  caption
}

fragment ServerImage_image on URLImage {
  full
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_authorization on Authorization {
  ...authorization_authorization
  ...ContentHeaderDetails_authorization
  ...ContentDownloadBlock_authorization
  ...EvergreenContentHeader_authorization
  roles {
    isPreviewingContentAllowance
    isPreviewing
    isAnonymous
    hasPremiumSubscription
    isFreemium
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_content on Content {
  ...authorization_content
  anonymousUserHasPremium
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  ...authorization_contentPiece
  ...MainContentSection_contentPiece
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
    isAvailableForFreemium
    ...PaywallBanner_contentPieceType
  }
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  sponsoringCompany {
    name
    id
  }
  activeProductAdvert {
    ...BannerAdvert_activeProductAdvert
    id
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_viewer_4uP6yi on Viewer {
  ...PaywallBanner_viewer_2HyoJ4
  ...DownloadContentDropdownContentPieceRefetch_viewer_1QxYRk
  mostPopularTags(first: 10) {
    ...Navigation_tags
  }
  authorization {
    ...Navigation_authorization
  }
  features
}

fragment Tag_tag on GenericTag {
  __isGenericTag: __typename
  __typename
  ... on AssetClassTag {
    name
    slug
  }
  ... on GeographyTag {
    name
    slug
  }
  ... on ContentTag {
    name
    slug
  }
}

fragment TextBlock_block on TextBlock {
  textMarkdown
}

fragment authorization_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isPreviewingContentAllowance
    isPreviewing
    isAnonymous
    hasPremiumSubscription
    isFreemium
  }
}

fragment authorization_content on Content {
  anonymousUserHasPremium
}

fragment authorization_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  isPremium
  contentPieceType {
    isAvailableForFreemium
  }
}


The Copper-To-Gold Ratio Is An Underrated Economic Barometer You Need To Know

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