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US stocks could be set to stumble

Are US Stocks The Next Laughing Stock?

***Zooming out:*** *O Canada!*

You might want to consider taking your money north of the border for a while. The price-to-earnings ratio – a key valuation metric – of Canada’s **S&P/TSX Composite Index** is much [lower](https://www.yahoo.com/now/t-rowe-price-sees-canadian-141235780.html) than the **S&P 500’s**. Plus, the market’s full of commodity stocks ready to take off with China's reawakening, from oil and gas to farm supplies and fertilizer.



Analysts made a bold prediction this week, warning that the US stock market could be in for a tumble.

**What does this mean?**

US stocks have begun 2023 in style, cruising along in the green and clocking up one of the best starts on record – a welcome turnaround after they had their weakest performance since 2008 last year. But strategists at **Morgan Stanley** (MS) think investors are living in la-la land: the firm’s number-crunchers – who nailed last year’s predictions – are now betting that this sunny spell is about to get very stormy indeed. And they could be right: see, while markets are banking on the **Federal Reserve** taking it easy on interest rate hikes, MS sees things playing out differently – especially if inflation data comes in hot and heavy this week. Factor in the anemic economy and the fact that earnings estimates could keep tumbling, and MS is betting that US stocks will dive to a low this spring.

**Why should I care?**

***For markets:*** *Fear factor.*

Sure, this is just one take, but there are already signs the tide is starting to turn. For one, US stocks had their toughest period of the year last week. And for another, the “put-to-call skew” – an indicator of whether investors are guarding against a drop or aiming to make money from a jump – is at its highest since August, when a two-month rally sharply reversed. That suggests folk are getting antsy, so if these signposts are anything to go by, consider going easy on risky bets for now…



News Story

encryptedEmail

planSlug

slugOrId

ContentPieceQuery

viewer

authorization

content

SingleContentPiece_viewer

webSubscriptions

contentPiece

mostPopularTags

features

query ContentPieceQuery(
  $slugOrId: String
  $encryptedEmail: String
  $planSlug: String
) {
  viewer {
    authorization {
      roles {
        isAnonymous
      }
      ...SingleContentPiece_authorization
    }
    ...SingleContentPiece_viewer_4uP6yi
    content(encryptedEmail: $encryptedEmail) {
      ...SingleContentPiece_content
      contentPiece(slugOrId: $slugOrId) {
        __typename
        ...SingleContentPiece_contentPiece
        canonicalLink
        id
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment AccessibleImage_accessibleImage on AccessibleURLImage {
  full
  altText
}

fragment AdvertWrapper_activeProductAdvert on ProductAdvert {
  id
  advertHandle
  destinationUrl
  sponsoringCompany {
    name
    id
  }
}

fragment AnonymousPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
  webSubscriptions {
    defaultWebPlan {
      ...PremiumAccountPromotionPanel_webPaymentPlan_2HyoJ4
    }
  }
}

fragment AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  title
}

fragment AuthorLinkWrapper_author on Author {
  slug
  isActive
}

fragment Avatar_image on URLImage {
  original
}

fragment BannerAdvert_activeProductAdvert on ProductAdvert {
  title
  description
  destinationUrl
  sponsoringCompany {
    name
    id
  }
  wideImage {
    ...AccessibleImage_accessibleImage
  }
  narrowImage {
    ...AccessibleImage_accessibleImage
  }
  ...AdvertWrapper_activeProductAdvert
}

fragment Block_block on ContentPieceBlock {
  __isContentPieceBlock: __typename
  __typename
  ... on TextBlock {
    id
    ...TextBlock_block
  }
  ... on ImageBlock {
    id
    ...ImageBlock_block
  }
  ... on QuoteBlock {
    id
    ...QuoteBlock_block
  }
}

fragment ContentAuthorAndMetadata_author on Author {
  id
  byline
  profilePicture {
    ...Avatar_image
  }
  ...AuthorLinkWrapper_author
}

fragment ContentDownloadBlock_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment ContentDownloadBlock_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...DownloadContentDropdown_contentPiece
  ...LicenseContentButton_contentPiece
  isAvailableToProducts
}

fragment ContentFooter_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  deepLink
  canonicalLink
  slug
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  mostRelevantTags(first: 30) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        ...Tag_tag
        ... on Node {
          __isNode: __typename
          id
        }
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment ContentHeaderDetails_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment ContentHeaderDetails_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ListenButton_contentPiece
  ...ContentPieceBookmarkIcon_contentPiece
  ...ContentDownloadBlock_contentPiece
  id
  title
  deepLink
  canonicalLink
  slug
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
}

fragment ContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...DefaultContentHeader_contentPiece
  ...EvergreenContentHeader_contentPiece
  contentPieceType {
    name
  }
}

fragment ContentMetadata_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  consumptionTime
  dateUpdatedDisplay
  contentPieceType {
    isEvergreen
  }
  author {
    byline
    ...AuthorLinkWrapper_author
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentPieceBookmarkIcon_contentPiece on ContentPiece {
  id
  isBookmarked
  title
}

fragment ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  title
  imageForSeo: headerImage {
    url: full
  }
  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
  id
  ... on PublicContentPiece {
    globalContentPieceId
  }
  byline
  seoTitle
  searchDescription
  canonicalLink
}

fragment ContentPieceSponsor_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  sponsoringCompany {
    id
    name
    link
    logo {
      ...ServerImage_image
    }
  }
}

fragment DefaultContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentHeaderDetails_contentPiece
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  ...ContentMetadata_contentPiece
  id
  title
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  author {
    ...AuthorLinkWrapper_author
    ...ContentAuthorAndMetadata_author
    id
  }
}

fragment DownloadContentDropdownContentPieceRefetch_viewer_1QxYRk on Viewer {
  contentPieceTranslation: contentPiece(slugOrId: $slugOrId) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    isAvailableToProducts
    blocks {
      __typename
      ...DownloadContentDropdown_blocks
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
    keyInsightsBlocks {
      id
      ...DownloadContentDropdown_blocks
    }
  }
}

fragment DownloadContentDropdown_blocks on ContentPieceBlock {
  __isContentPieceBlock: __typename
  ... on TextBlock {
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment DownloadContentDropdown_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  localeMapping {
    languageCode
    contentPieceId
  }
}

fragment EvergreenContentHeader_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment EvergreenContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentMetadata_contentPiece
  ...ListenButton_contentPiece
  ...ContentPieceSponsor_contentPiece
  ...ContentPieceBookmarkIcon_contentPiece
  ...ContentDownloadBlock_contentPiece
  canonicalLink
  id
  deepLink
  title
  slug
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
}

fragment ImageBlock_block on ImageBlock {
  image {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  alt
  caption
  link
}

fragment KeyInsightsBlock_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment KeyInsightsCarousel_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment KeyInsights_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...KeyInsightsCarousel_contentPiece
  ...KeyInsightsBlock_contentPiece
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment LicenseContentButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  isAvailableToProducts
}

fragment ListenButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  trackingTitle
  subtitle
  readingTime
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
}

fragment LoggedInPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
  webSubscriptions {
    defaultWebPlan {
      ...PremiumAccountPromotionPanel_webPaymentPlan_2HyoJ4
    }
  }
}

fragment MainContentSection_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece
  ...KeyInsights_contentPiece
  ...ContentHeader_contentPiece
  ...ContentFooter_contentPiece
  title
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
  readingTime
  isPremium
  deepLink
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  id
  canonicalLink
  byline
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  blocks {
    __typename
    ...Block_block
    ... on Node {
      __isNode: __typename
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment MostPopularTags_tags on GenericTagConnection {
  edges {
    node {
      __typename
      ... on AssetClassTag {
        slug
      }
      ... on ContentTag {
        slug
      }
      ... on GeographyTag {
        slug
      }
      ...Tag_tag
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment Navigation_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment Navigation_tags on GenericTagConnection {
  ...MostPopularTags_tags
}

fragment PaywallBanner_contentPieceType on ContentPieceType {
  isAvailableForFreemium
}

fragment PaywallBanner_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
  ...AnonymousPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4
  ...LoggedInPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4
}

fragment PremiumAccountPromotionPanel_webPaymentPlan_2HyoJ4 on WebPaymentPlan {
  amount
  currency
  currencySymbol
  interval
  promotionApplied(slug: $planSlug) {
    stripeDiscount {
      discountPct
      discountAmount
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment QuoteBlock_block on QuoteBlock {
  quote
  caption
}

fragment ServerImage_image on URLImage {
  full
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_authorization on Authorization {
  ...authorization_authorization
  ...ContentHeaderDetails_authorization
  ...ContentDownloadBlock_authorization
  ...EvergreenContentHeader_authorization
  roles {
    isPreviewingContentAllowance
    isPreviewing
    isAnonymous
    hasPremiumSubscription
    isFreemium
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_content on Content {
  ...authorization_content
  anonymousUserHasPremium
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  ...authorization_contentPiece
  ...MainContentSection_contentPiece
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
    isAvailableForFreemium
    ...PaywallBanner_contentPieceType
  }
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  activeProductAdvert {
    ...BannerAdvert_activeProductAdvert
    id
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_viewer_4uP6yi on Viewer {
  ...PaywallBanner_viewer_2HyoJ4
  ...DownloadContentDropdownContentPieceRefetch_viewer_1QxYRk
  mostPopularTags(first: 10) {
    ...Navigation_tags
  }
  authorization {
    ...Navigation_authorization
  }
  features
}

fragment Tag_tag on GenericTag {
  __isGenericTag: __typename
  __typename
  ... on AssetClassTag {
    name
    slug
  }
  ... on GeographyTag {
    name
    slug
  }
  ... on ContentTag {
    name
    slug
  }
}

fragment TextBlock_block on TextBlock {
  textMarkdown
}

fragment authorization_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isPreviewingContentAllowance
    isPreviewing
    isAnonymous
    hasPremiumSubscription
    isFreemium
  }
}

fragment authorization_content on Content {
  anonymousUserHasPremium
}

fragment authorization_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  isPremium
  contentPieceType {
    isAvailableForFreemium
  }
}


Are US Stocks The Next Laughing Stock?

BECOME A SMARTER INVESTOR