over 2 years ago • 4 mins
I’m Roshan D’Souza and I’m always on the lookout for the next 10x stock.
Long Arrival (ticker: ARVL).
Arrival’s mission is to transform the design, assembly, and distribution of commercial electric vehicles (EVs) globally. It has an army of 1,900 engineers and scientists focused on developing vertically integrated technologies and products that create a new approach to the design and assembly of EVs. They intend to convert existing warehouses and turn them into scalable micro factories, thus enabling them to produce EVs that are competitively priced to fossil fuel variants with a substantially lower Total Cost of Ownership (TCO).
Arrival expects to be cash-flow positive by 2023 and generate more than $14 billion in revenue by 2024, without needing additional capital. Factoring in the estimates provided by the company and adjusting for risk by using conservative forecasts for revenue and stock dilution, my discounted cash flow (DCF) modelling shows an upside potential of 300% to 500%. The lower end of these estimates is in line with estimates by Barclays and Wolfe Research.
An investment in Arrival is not for the faint hearted and calls for regularly tracking its progress on micro factory construction and vehicle orders. Though Arrival states that it doesn’t require further capital, it’s entirely possible that dramatic expenditure in a particular quarter may occur and coincide with the loss of a key contract which could be viewed by the market as a negative or an existential crisis, leading to a sell-off.
This insight was submitted by a community member for information and educational purposes. It doesn't represent the views of the Finimize team and shouldn't be taken as financial advice.
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