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abrdn sees the world on the brink of recession

The global investment firm has updated its outlook for 2023. So Stéphane’s taken a look at how it sees things going and what you can do to prepare for it.

abrdn Sees The World On The Brink Of Recession

Economists at abrdn see the global economy on the precipice of recession – and say the investing world might not be ready for it. Here’s their base-case forecast, two outcomes they view as less likely, and the assets you may want to consider for each.

# What’s the base case then?

**Growth:** It’s not pretty: economists at the Scottish-based asset management firm (and parent company to Finimize) expect the global economy to fall into a deep and prolonged recession in 2023. They say aggressive interest rate hikes, Europe’s energy crisis, and weaknesses in China will ultimately push the global economy over the edge. And they’re warning that **the market’s consensus of economists is underestimating the potential depth and severity of the global slowdown**.

**Inflation**: Their research show

Insight

contentPieceId

encryptedEmail

ContentPieceQuery

viewer

query ContentPieceQuery(
  $contentPieceId: String!
  $encryptedEmail: String
) {
  viewer {
    authorization {
      roles {
        isAnonymous
      }
      ...SingleContentPiece_authorization
    }
    content(encryptedEmail: $encryptedEmail) {
      ...SingleContentPiece_content_11DhN6
      contentPiece(contentPieceId: $contentPieceId) {
        __typename
        ...SingleContentPiece_contentPiece
        id
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  title
}

fragment Block_block on ContentPieceBlock {
  __isContentPieceBlock: __typename
  __typename
  ... on TextBlock {
    id
    ...TextBlock_block
  }
  ... on ImageBlock {
    id
    ...ImageBlock_block
  }
  ... on QuoteBlock {
    id
    ...QuoteBlock_block
  }
}

fragment ContentMetadata_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  byline
  consumptionTime
  dateUpdatedDisplay
  contentPieceType {
    name
  }
}

fragment ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  title
  imageForSeo: headerImage {
    url: full
  }
  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
  id
  ... on PublicContentPiece {
    globalContentPieceId
  }
  byline
  seoTitle
  searchDescription
  canonicalLink
}

fragment ExploreMore_content_3M8Ve6 on Content {
  moreContentPiecesOfSameType: contentPieces(first: 5, filterByTypeOfId: $contentPieceId) {
    edges {
      node {
        title
        id
        slug
        subtitle
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment ImageBlock_block on ImageBlock {
  image {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  alt
  caption
}

fragment ListenButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  trackingTitle
  subtitle
  readingTime
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
}

fragment MainContentSection_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentMetadata_contentPiece
  ...ListenButton_contentPiece
  ...ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  title
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
  readingTime
  isPremium
  deepLink
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  id
  byline
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  blocks {
    __typename
    ...Block_block
    ... on Node {
      __isNode: __typename
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment MoreContentSection_content_11DhN6 on Content {
  ...ExploreMore_content_3M8Ve6
  mostRecentBrief: contentPieces(first: 1, excludeId: $contentPieceId, contentType: "DAILY_BRIEF") {
    edges {
      node {
        id
        ...SingleContentLarge_contentPiece
      }
    }
  }
  mostRecentInsight: contentPieces(first: 1, excludeId: $contentPieceId, contentType: "INSIGHT") {
    edges {
      node {
        id
        ...SingleContentLarge_contentPiece
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment QuoteBlock_block on QuoteBlock {
  quote
  caption
}

fragment ServerImage_image on URLImage {
  full
  srcSet
}

fragment SingleContentLarge_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  title
  byline
  consumptionTime
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  id
  slug
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isPreviewingContentAllowance
    isPreviewing
    isAnonymous
    hasPremiumSubscription
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  ...MainContentSection_contentPiece
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_content_11DhN6 on Content {
  ...MoreContentSection_content_11DhN6
  anonymousUserHasPremium
}

fragment TextBlock_block on TextBlock {
  textMarkdown
}


abrdn Sees The World On The Brink Of Recession

What’s the base case then?

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Your Daily Brief For January 27th

Get Ready For The Emerging Markets Era In Stocks