Buying a house today is just harder than it was a year ago – not least because mortgage rates reflect the sharp rise in interest rates. For prospective buyers, that generally means higher monthly mortgage payments, on top of high costs from inflation elsewhere. And that’s part of the reason why analysts at Goldman Sachs are forecasting further declines in house prices across many of the world’s advanced economies.
See, the bank estimates that for every 1 percentage point increase in mortgage rates, house prices are likely to decline by 2.5% (albeit with a lag of about two and a half years). And the impact of those costlier mortgages on actual house prices could be 10% to 20% heftier if inflation proves stickier than expected and keeps mortgage rates higher for longer.
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With all this volatility, you may want to write that useful old adage down.
These spreads have widened, foreshadowing volatile days ahead.
When bond volatility is this hot, compared to stocks volatility, it’s a warning sign.