Reda Farran, CFA

4 months ago4 mins

Where The Pros Would Invest A Lump Sum Now

Where The Pros Would Invest A Lump Sum Now

Reda Farran, CFA

4 months ago4 mins

Where The Pros Would Invest A Lump Sum Now
  • Citi sees some kind of recession emerging this year and expects high-quality companies that have increased their dividends in each of the past 25 years to outperform in that scenario.

  • Bailard likes Japanese stock indexes for their well-balanced sector composition. The investment firm also anticipates that companies in the country will benefit as Western firms shift their reliance from China to Japan.

  • AlTi Tiedemann Global is tilting its portfolio away from the US and toward Europe, driven by the region's better valuations and the prominence of sectors that can better withstand an inflationary environment.

Citi sees some kind of recession emerging this year and expects high-quality companies that have increased their dividends in each of the past 25 years to outperform in that scenario.

Bailard likes Japanese stock indexes for their well-balanced sector composition. The investment firm also anticipates that companies in the country will benefit as Western firms shift their reliance from China to Japan.

AlTi Tiedemann Global is tilting its portfolio away from the US and toward Europe, driven by the region's better valuations and the prominence of sectors that can better withstand an inflationary environment.

Once in a while, you stumble into a little windfall – a bonus comes in at work, an investment pays off, or you come into a small inheritance. The question is: what to do with it? With inflation so high, you’re probably better off investing that money than leaving it to dwindle in real value in your bank account. Three leading wealth advisors recently shared their top investment calls with Bloomberg, and I’ve taken those views a step further, to help you put their ideas into action.

Idea 1: Dividend growers from around the world

Citi Global Wealth expects some kind of recession to take shape this year and so it recommends investing in high-quality companies that can generate profit no matter what the economy’s doing. More specifically, Citi is looking for companies with strong management teams, healthy balance sheets, good cash flow generation, and sustainable and growing dividends. Firms that fit Citi’s bill are the so-called “dividend aristocrats” – companies that have increased their shareholder payouts in each of the past 25 years. And according to Citi, they’ve been able to outperform the broader market in 25 of the last 32 years. Their performance during 2008, the onset of the global financial crisis, was quite notable, with the S&P Dividend Aristocrats Index beating the S&P 500 by a stunning 15 percentage points.

Which ETFs offer a good starting point?

The ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (ticker: NOBL; expense ratio: 0.35%) is a popular choice, offering investors an easy way to tap into a basket of over 60 US dividend aristocrat stocks. For exposure to those outside of the US, the iShares International Dividend Growth ETF (IGRO; 0.15%) would do the trick After all, Citi reckons there’s a valuation argument for venturing abroad, with global stocks trading at a 30% discount to the S&P 500 on a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) basis.

Idea 2: Stocks from Japan

Lots of investors have avoided Japan for a long time, but California-based wealth management firm Bailard says it’s bullish on the country now for two reasons. First, corporate Japan is set to benefit from a growing trend that Bailard calls “friend-shoring”. That’s the idea that European and US companies are likely to pivot their historical trade reliance from China to Japan, where the geopolitical issues are way less worrying.

Second, Japan’s stock market is a lot more balanced than the US’s, with no one sector dominating the index. For example, the tech sector represents 15% of the MSCI Japan Index versus a whopping 25% for the S&P 500. And within the sector itself, Japan demonstrates a lot more balance, with firms ranging from well-known consumer electronics manufacturers (e.g. Sony, Nintendo, Canon, and Panasonic) to lesser-known companies that are nonetheless essential to the growing semiconductor industry (e.g. Tokyo Electron, which builds chip manufacturing machines, and Advantest, which produces semiconductor testing equipment).

Which ETFs offer a good starting point?

The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ; 0.50%) is the biggest and most popular ETF, offering broad exposure to large-cap Japanese stocks. For a slightly different approach, you can consider the Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta Japan Equity ETF (GSJY; 0.25%). This ETF tracks a proprietary index that takes a multi-factor approach to investing in Japan, looking for stocks that exhibit good value, strong momentum, high quality, and low volatility. And despite its more involved approach, GSJY comes with half the fees of the plain-vanilla EWJ.

Idea 3: Stocks from Europe

This final idea comes from investment firm AlTi Tiedemann Global, which has been shifting its portfolio away from the US and toward Europe. In the firm’s view, there are some overriding macro themes that emerge every decade and are really important for investors to think about.

The previous decade was characterized by disinflation (i.e. falling but still positive inflation), while the current one is expected to bring stickier, but potentially more volatile price gains in the range of 3% to 4%.

In such a scenario, where high interest rates and elevated inflation reduce the present value of companies’ future real cash flows, it becomes crucial to prioritize stock valuations. It’s also important to select sectors that thrive in an inflationary environment and to focus on companies that have the ability to pass higher costs onto their customers.

European stocks are a good match here because of their attractive valuations and sector composition. Depending on the country, valuations are at a 30% to 35% discount to the US market, with European stocks as a whole trading at around 12x forward earnings, versus 19x for the US. What’s more, compared to the US, Europe has more broad-based sectors that do well in an inflationary environment – for example, energy, financials, and industrials. The region also has a lot of prominent luxury goods firms with large and stable profit margins thanks to their strong pricing power (LVMH and Hermès are a couple of shining examples).

Which ETFs offer a good starting point?

The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK; 0.11%) is the biggest and most popular ETF choice here, offering broad exposure to large-cap European stocks. Another good option to play Europe while getting increased exposure to luxury goods firms is the SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 ETF (FEZ; 0.29%). LVMH is the ETF’s second-biggest holding, at 7.3%, while Hermès grabs the 13th slot at 2.3%.

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