abrdn sees the world on the brink of recession

The global investment firm has updated its outlook for 2023. So Stéphane’s taken a look at how it sees things going and what you can do to prepare for it.

abrdn Sees The World On The Brink Of Recession

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Your Daily Brief For March 22nd

abrdn’s base case outlook isn’t pretty: its economists think markets are underestimating the potential depth and duration of the coming global recession. They expect growth, inflation, and even interest rates to fall sharply in 2023.



Economists at abrdn see the global economy on the precipice of recession – and say the investing world might not be ready for it. Here’s their base-case forecast, two outcomes they view as less likely, and the assets you may want to consider for each.

# What’s the base case then?

**Growth:** It’s not pretty: economists at the Scottish-based asset management firm (and parent company to Finimize) expect the global economy to fall into a deep and prolonged recession in 2023. They say aggressive interest rate hikes, Europe’s energy crisis, and weaknesses in China will ultimately push the global economy over the edge. And they’re warning that **the market’s consensus of economists is underestimating the potential depth and severity of the global slowdown**.

**Inflation**: Their research show

Things could get even worse, however: core inflation could become a lot stickier than expected, or a price spike in commodities could bring inflation even higher, forcing the Fed to keep hiking rates aggressively until the economy falls into a profound recession.



For the economy to end up better than their base case, they say supply chain and labor market issues must be resolved, or inflation must become more sensitive to a slowdown in growth.



Insight

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encryptedEmail

ContentPieceQuery

viewer

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) {
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}

fragment AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment Avatar_image on URLImage {
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fragment Block_block on ContentPieceBlock {
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fragment ContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment ContentMetadata_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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}

fragment ContentPieceExploreMore_content_3M8Ve6 on Content {
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fragment ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment KeyInsightsCarousel_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment ListenButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment QuoteBlock_block on QuoteBlock {
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fragment ServerImage_image on URLImage {
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fragment SingleContentLarge_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment SingleContentPiece_authorization on Authorization {
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    hasPremiumSubscription
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}

fragment SingleContentPiece_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
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  ...MainContentSection_contentPiece
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  isPremium
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  chapters {
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}

fragment SingleContentPiece_content_11DhN6 on Content {
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}

fragment TextBlock_block on TextBlock {
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}


abrdn Sees The World On The Brink Of Recession

abrdn Sees The World On The Brink Of Recession

What’s the base case then?

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Your Daily Brief For March 22nd

The Two Big Risks Ahead For US Banks, And What It All Means For Your Portfolio