s&p 500

macroeconomics

stocks

bonds

Why a Fed rate cut might not be far off now

This chart suggests we may be at a turning point.

Maybe Rate Cuts (And A Better Stock Environment) Aren’t Far Off

It’s one of the top questions on investors’ minds: when will the Federal Reserve (the Fed) ease up on the rate hikes and pivot to *easier* monetary policy? This chart suggests potential good news for Team Pivot.

See, historically, when the US two-year Treasury yield (blue line) has crossed below the benchmark federal funds rate (white line) for the first time during a rate hike cycle, it’s been followed by an interest rate cut. And that’s just happened. What’s more, the one-year Treasury notes are yielding significantly more than the two-year notes – and historically, that’s signaled that a rate cut is not far off.

What’s unclear now is whether history will soon repeat itself, or whether the economic conditions today will lead to a different outcome. This week’s announcement from the Fed could shed some light on all that.

A less aggressive (less hike-inclined) Fed would give a boost to stocks, at a time when they appear to need it. Just look at the earnings we’ve seen so far: 29% of S&P 500 companies have reported results for the fourth quarter. Of those, 69% have beaten earnings estimates, which is weak compared to the five-year average of 77%. On average, companies are beating earnings estimates by 1.5%, which is far below the five-year average of 8.6%.



Quick Take

encryptedEmail

planSlug

slugOrId

ContentPieceQuery

viewer

authorization

content

SingleContentPiece_viewer

webSubscriptions

query ContentPieceQuery(
  $slugOrId: String
  $encryptedEmail: String
  $planSlug: String
) {
  viewer {
    authorization {
      roles {
        isAnonymous
      }
      ...SingleContentPiece_authorization
    }
    ...SingleContentPiece_viewer_2HyoJ4
    content(encryptedEmail: $encryptedEmail) {
      ...SingleContentPiece_content
      contentPiece(slugOrId: $slugOrId) {
        __typename
        ...SingleContentPiece_contentPiece
        id
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment AnonymousPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
  webSubscriptions {
    defaultWebPlan {
      ...PremiumAccountPromotionPanel_webPaymentPlan_2HyoJ4
    }
  }
}

fragment AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  title
}

fragment Avatar_image on URLImage {
  original
}

fragment Block_block on ContentPieceBlock {
  __isContentPieceBlock: __typename
  __typename
  ... on TextBlock {
    id
    ...TextBlock_block
  }
  ... on ImageBlock {
    id
    ...ImageBlock_block
  }
  ... on QuoteBlock {
    id
    ...QuoteBlock_block
  }
}

fragment ContentFooter_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  deepLink
  canonicalLink
  slug
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  mostRelevantTags(first: 5) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        ...Tag_tag
        ... on Node {
          __isNode: __typename
          id
        }
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment ContentHeaderDetails_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentMetadata_contentPiece
  ...ListenButton_contentPiece
  ...DownloadContentButton_contentPiece
  id
  title
  deepLink
  canonicalLink
  slug
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  author {
    id
    byline
    profilePicture {
      ...Avatar_image
    }
  }
}

fragment ContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...DefaultContentHeader_contentPiece
  ...EvergreenContentHeader_contentPiece
  contentPieceType {
    isEvergreen
  }
}

fragment ContentMetadata_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  byline
  consumptionTime
  dateUpdatedDisplay
  contentPieceType {
    isEvergreen
  }
}

fragment ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  title
  imageForSeo: headerImage {
    url: full
  }
  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
  id
  ... on PublicContentPiece {
    globalContentPieceId
  }
  byline
  seoTitle
  searchDescription
  canonicalLink
}

fragment ContentPieceSponsor_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  sponsoringCompany {
    id
    name
    link
    logo {
      ...ServerImage_image
    }
  }
}

fragment DefaultContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentHeaderDetails_contentPiece
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  ...KeyInsights_contentPiece
  id
  title
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
}

fragment DownloadContentButton_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isB2bUser
  }
}

fragment DownloadContentButton_blocks on ContentPieceBlock {
  __isContentPieceBlock: __typename
  ... on TextBlock {
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment DownloadContentButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  blocks {
    __typename
    ...DownloadContentButton_blocks
    ... on Node {
      __isNode: __typename
      id
    }
  }
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    title
    blocks {
      __typename
      ...DownloadContentButton_blocks
      ... on Node {
        __isNode: __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment EvergreenContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentMetadata_contentPiece
  ...ListenButton_contentPiece
  ...ContentPieceSponsor_contentPiece
  canonicalLink
  id
  deepLink
  title
  hasAudio
  slug
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  ...DownloadContentButton_contentPiece
}

fragment ImageBlock_block on ImageBlock {
  image {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  alt
  caption
}

fragment KeyInsightsBlock_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment KeyInsightsCarousel_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment KeyInsights_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...KeyInsightsCarousel_contentPiece
  ...KeyInsightsBlock_contentPiece
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment ListenButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  trackingTitle
  subtitle
  readingTime
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
}

fragment LoggedInPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
  webSubscriptions {
    defaultWebPlan {
      ...PremiumAccountPromotionPanel_webPaymentPlan_2HyoJ4
    }
  }
}

fragment MainContentSection_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece
  ...ContentHeader_contentPiece
  ...ContentFooter_contentPiece
  title
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
  readingTime
  isPremium
  deepLink
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  id
  canonicalLink
  byline
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  blocks {
    __typename
    ...Block_block
    ... on Node {
      __isNode: __typename
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment PaywallBanner_contentPieceType on ContentPieceType {
  isAvailableForFreemium
}

fragment PaywallBanner_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
  ...AnonymousPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4
  ...LoggedInPaywall_viewer_2HyoJ4
}

fragment PremiumAccountPromotionPanel_webPaymentPlan_2HyoJ4 on WebPaymentPlan {
  amount
  currency
  currencySymbol
  interval
  promotionApplied(slug: $planSlug) {
    stripeDiscount {
      discountPct
      discountAmount
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment QuoteBlock_block on QuoteBlock {
  quote
  caption
}

fragment ServerImage_image on URLImage {
  full
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_authorization on Authorization {
  ...authorization_authorization
  ...DownloadContentButton_authorization
  roles {
    isPreviewingContentAllowance
    isPreviewing
    isAnonymous
    hasPremiumSubscription
    isFreemium
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_content on Content {
  ...authorization_content
  anonymousUserHasPremium
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  ...authorization_contentPiece
  ...MainContentSection_contentPiece
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
    isAvailableForFreemium
    ...PaywallBanner_contentPieceType
  }
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_viewer_2HyoJ4 on Viewer {
  ...PaywallBanner_viewer_2HyoJ4
}

fragment Tag_tag on GenericTag {
  __isGenericTag: __typename
  ... on AssetClassTag {
    name
    slug
  }
  ... on GeographyTag {
    name
    slug
  }
  ... on ContentTag {
    name
    slug
  }
}

fragment TextBlock_block on TextBlock {
  textMarkdown
}

fragment authorization_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isPreviewingContentAllowance
    isPreviewing
    isAnonymous
    hasPremiumSubscription
    isFreemium
  }
}

fragment authorization_content on Content {
  anonymousUserHasPremium
}

fragment authorization_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  isPremium
  contentPieceType {
    isAvailableForFreemium
  }
}


Maybe Rate Cuts (And A Better Stock Environment) Aren’t Far Off

Maybe Rate Cuts (And A Better Stock Environment) Aren’t Far Off

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