How Likely Is That Recession Now? Here Are The Latest Odds

Reda Farran

7 days ago2:02 mins

How Likely Is That Recession Now? Here Are The Latest Odds

If you’re wondering how convinced the market might be about the likelihood that we’ll see a recession soon, this chart can help shed a little light. It includes the market-implied odds of just such an event, across nine key assets, derived from a trading model created and updated by JPMorgan. And as you can see, the graph shows that the odds of an economic downturn priced into financial markets have fallen sharply from their 2022 highs in seven of the nine.

Take, for example, European stocks: in October, they were assigning a 93% probability that a recession would hit the region. Those odds have tumbled to just 26% today. It’s a big move, but it’s not overly shocking when you consider that economists at Goldman Sachs said earlier this m

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