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Why Dalio And Bridgewater See Stocks Falling A Lot More

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Your Daily Brief For March 22nd

Stage 2 is likely to bring stocks a lot lower though, as rising interest rates eventually slam companies’ earnings.



Should both stages overlap, stocks might fall another 20% to 30%.



If you’ve been wondering how quickly stocks might return to their most recent peak, Ray Dalio and his hedge fund research team have a message for you: slow down. Stocks still have further to fall and they’ll do so, they say, as the US economy slides into a recession, in 2023 or 2024. Here’s how this might all play out…

# What’s their view then?

Researchers at Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund, say stocks tend to fall in two stages when interest rates rise. And the first stage may not be done playing out just yet…

## Stage 1: valuations drop.

The more interest rates rise, the more attractive cash becomes relative to risky assets like stocks. Think about it: with so many unknowns on the horizon, doesn’t earning a virtually risk-free 3.5% return on your cash s

The markets are in a two-stage downturn. In stage 1, interest rates rise, making cash more attractive, relative to risky assets like stocks. This is already playing out.



Insight

contentPieceId

encryptedEmail

ContentPieceQuery

viewer

query ContentPieceQuery(
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  $encryptedEmail: String
) {
  viewer {
    authorization {
      roles {
        isAnonymous
      }
      ...SingleContentPiece_authorization
    }
    content(encryptedEmail: $encryptedEmail) {
      ...SingleContentPiece_content_11DhN6
      contentPiece(contentPieceId: $contentPieceId) {
        __typename
        ...SingleContentPiece_contentPiece
        id
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    }
    id
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}

fragment AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
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  title
}

fragment Avatar_image on URLImage {
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}

fragment Block_block on ContentPieceBlock {
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  ... on ImageBlock {
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  ... on QuoteBlock {
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}

fragment ContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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}

fragment ContentMetadata_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  byline
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  contentPieceType {
    name
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}

fragment ContentPieceExploreMore_content_3M8Ve6 on Content {
  moreContentPiecesOfSameType: contentPieces(first: 5, filterByTypeOfId: $contentPieceId) {
    edges {
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        title
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}

fragment ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
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    globalContentPieceId
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}

fragment ContentPieceSponsor_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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}

fragment DefaultContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment EvergreenContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment ImageBlock_block on ImageBlock {
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fragment KeyInsightsBlock_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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}

fragment KeyInsightsCarousel_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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}

fragment KeyInsights_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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  ...KeyInsightsCarousel_contentPiece
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  keyInsightsBlocks {
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}

fragment ListenButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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  title
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  isPremium
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fragment MainContentSection_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
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fragment MoreContentSection_content_11DhN6 on Content {
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fragment QuoteBlock_block on QuoteBlock {
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}

fragment ServerImage_image on URLImage {
  full
}

fragment SingleContentLarge_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  title
  byline
  consumptionTime
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  id
  slug
  canonicalLink
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isPreviewingContentAllowance
    isPreviewing
    isAnonymous
    hasPremiumSubscription
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  ...MainContentSection_contentPiece
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
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  chapters {
    __typename
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}

fragment SingleContentPiece_content_11DhN6 on Content {
  ...MoreContentSection_content_11DhN6
  anonymousUserHasPremium
}

fragment TextBlock_block on TextBlock {
  textMarkdown
}


Why Dalio And Bridgewater See Stocks Falling A Lot More

Why Dalio And Bridgewater See Stocks Falling A Lot More

What’s their view then?

Stage 1: valuations drop.

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Your Daily Brief For March 22nd

The Two Big Risks Ahead For US Banks, And What It All Means For Your Portfolio