Stéphane Renevier

6 months ago4 mins

Why Dalio And Bridgewater See Stocks Falling A Lot More

Why Dalio And Bridgewater See Stocks Falling A Lot More

Stéphane Renevier

6 months ago4 mins

Why Dalio And Bridgewater See Stocks Falling A Lot More
  • The markets are in a two-stage downturn. In stage 1, interest rates rise, making cash more attractive, relative to risky assets like stocks. This is already playing out.

  • Stage 2 is likely to bring stocks a lot lower though, as rising interest rates eventually slam companies’ earnings.

  • Should both stages overlap, stocks might fall another 20% to 30%.

The markets are in a two-stage downturn. In stage 1, interest rates rise, making cash more attractive, relative to risky assets like stocks. This is already playing out.

Stage 2 is likely to bring stocks a lot lower though, as rising interest rates eventually slam companies’ earnings.

Should both stages overlap, stocks might fall another 20% to 30%.

If you’ve been wondering how quickly stocks might return to their most recent peak, Ray Dalio and his hedge fund research team have a message for you: slow down. Stocks still have further to fall and they’ll do so, they say, as the US economy slides into a recession, in 2023 or 2024. Here’s how this might all play out…

What’s their view then?

Researchers at Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates, the world’s biggest hedge fund, say stocks tend to fall in two stages when interest rates rise. And the first stage may not be done playing out just yet…

Stage 1: valuations drop.

The more interest rates rise, the more attractive cash becomes relative to risky assets like stocks. Think about it: with so many unknowns on the horizon, doesn’t earning a virtually risk-free 3.5% return on your cash s

Limited introductory offer

Subscribe Now 50% Off

Get full access to daily stories, insights, deep-dives, interviews, podcasts, and more

Have an account? Log in