The BoE thinks recession will limit inflation

Only a pound-damaging recession will save the Brits now.

The Bank Of England Has Stopped Kidding Itself About Inflation – And What Will Stop It

Here’s how long you might have to wait for a bargain.

Goldman Sees Home Prices Falling Further In Most Countries

Here’s what happened, and what to watch for as market worries widen.

How A Market On Edge Sent Credit Suisse Plummeting

When bond volatility is this hot, compared to stocks volatility, it’s a warning sign.

This Fear Gauge Is Rocketing To Extreme Levels

These spreads have widened, foreshadowing volatile days ahead.

The Bond Market Has A Warning For You About Stocks

The Two Big Risks Ahead For US Banks, And What It All Means For Your Portfolio

With all this volatility, you may want to write that useful old adage down.

Remember: It’s About Time In The Market (Not Timing The Market)

Your Daily Brief For March 22nd

The Bank of England (BoE) has consistently underestimated UK inflation in the past 18 months. The central bank barely acknowledged that the pandemic would have any impact on prices back in May 2021 (gray line above), and none of its subsequent forecasts in August 2021, November 2021, February 2022, and May 2022 have aged much better.

That might be because the BoE originally claimed inflation was “transitory” – the result of a sharp pandemic-induced slowdown in production and shipping that would pass once everything was up and running again. So in order not to risk the post-pandemic economic recovery, the central bank was reluctant to hike interest rates for no good reason. It was only when it became inarguable in December 2021 that inflation *wasn’t* just a blip that the BoE started raisi

Quick Take

contentPieceId

encryptedEmail

ContentPieceQuery

viewer

query ContentPieceQuery(
  $contentPieceId: String!
  $encryptedEmail: String
) {
  viewer {
    authorization {
      roles {
        isAnonymous
      }
      ...SingleContentPiece_authorization
    }
    content(encryptedEmail: $encryptedEmail) {
      ...SingleContentPiece_content_11DhN6
      contentPiece(contentPieceId: $contentPieceId) {
        __typename
        ...SingleContentPiece_contentPiece
        id
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  title
}

fragment Avatar_image on URLImage {
  original
}

fragment Block_block on ContentPieceBlock {
  __isContentPieceBlock: __typename
  __typename
  ... on TextBlock {
    id
    ...TextBlock_block
  }
  ... on ImageBlock {
    id
    ...ImageBlock_block
  }
  ... on QuoteBlock {
    id
    ...QuoteBlock_block
  }
}

fragment ContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...DefaultContentHeader_contentPiece
  ...EvergreenContentHeader_contentPiece
  contentPieceType {
    isEvergreen
  }
}

fragment ContentMetadata_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  byline
  consumptionTime
  dateUpdatedDisplay
  contentPieceType {
    name
  }
}

fragment ContentPieceExploreMore_content_3M8Ve6 on Content {
  moreContentPiecesOfSameType: contentPieces(first: 5, filterByTypeOfId: $contentPieceId) {
    edges {
      node {
        title
        id
        slug
        subtitle
        canonicalLink
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  title
  imageForSeo: headerImage {
    url: full
  }
  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
  id
  ... on PublicContentPiece {
    globalContentPieceId
  }
  byline
  seoTitle
  searchDescription
  canonicalLink
}

fragment ContentPieceSponsor_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  sponsoringCompany {
    id
    name
    link
    logo {
      ...ServerImage_image
    }
  }
}

fragment DefaultContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentMetadata_contentPiece
  ...ListenButton_contentPiece
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  ...KeyInsights_contentPiece
  id
  deepLink
  canonicalLink
  title
  author {
    id
    byline
    profilePicture {
      ...Avatar_image
    }
  }
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
}

fragment EvergreenContentHeader_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentMetadata_contentPiece
  ...ListenButton_contentPiece
  ...ContentPieceSponsor_contentPiece
  canonicalLink
  id
  deepLink
  title
  hasAudio
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
}

fragment ImageBlock_block on ImageBlock {
  image {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  alt
  caption
}

fragment KeyInsightsBlock_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment KeyInsightsCarousel_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment KeyInsights_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...KeyInsightsCarousel_contentPiece
  ...KeyInsightsBlock_contentPiece
  keyInsightsBlocks {
    id
    textMarkdown
  }
}

fragment ListenButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  trackingTitle
  subtitle
  readingTime
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
}

fragment MainContentSection_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece
  ...ContentHeader_contentPiece
  title
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
  readingTime
  isPremium
  deepLink
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  id
  canonicalLink
  byline
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  blocks {
    __typename
    ...Block_block
    ... on Node {
      __isNode: __typename
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment MoreContentSection_content_11DhN6 on Content {
  ...ContentPieceExploreMore_content_3M8Ve6
  mostRecentBrief: contentPieces(first: 1, excludeId: $contentPieceId, contentType: "DAILY_BRIEF") {
    edges {
      node {
        id
        ...SingleContentLarge_contentPiece
      }
    }
  }
  mostRecentInsight: contentPieces(first: 1, excludeId: $contentPieceId, contentType: "INSIGHT") {
    edges {
      node {
        id
        ...SingleContentLarge_contentPiece
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment QuoteBlock_block on QuoteBlock {
  quote
  caption
}

fragment ServerImage_image on URLImage {
  full
}

fragment SingleContentLarge_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  title
  byline
  consumptionTime
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  id
  slug
  canonicalLink
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isPreviewingContentAllowance
    isPreviewing
    isAnonymous
    hasPremiumSubscription
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  ...MainContentSection_contentPiece
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_content_11DhN6 on Content {
  ...MoreContentSection_content_11DhN6
  anonymousUserHasPremium
}

fragment TextBlock_block on TextBlock {
  textMarkdown
}


The Bank Of England Has Stopped Kidding Itself About Inflation – And What Will Stop It

The Bank Of England Has Stopped Kidding Itself About Inflation – And What Will Stop It

Subscribe Now 50% Off

Your Daily Brief For March 22nd

The Two Big Risks Ahead For US Banks, And What It All Means For Your Portfolio