7 months ago • 4:53 mins
Back in December, JPMorgan predicted that US stocks would gain 5% this year, economists were expecting the 10-year US bond yield to stick around 2%, and Goldman Sachs raised the prospect that bitcoin would hit $100,000. But six months later, US stocks are down 20%, the 10-year yield is at 3%, and bitcoin more than halved to around $21,000. The truth is, the pros on Wall Street have a terrible forecasting record, and all you need to do better is to follow five simple steps inspired by Philip Tetlock’s book Superforecasting.
Imagine you came across a headline that says: “Markets are significantly overvalued and are about to crash”.
First things first, you need to understand what “markets are about to crash” actually means.
Morgan Stanley’s prestigious wealth management unit has been selling off some US stocks to boost its exposure to developing economies. Russell explains why it’s betting so big
There aren’t a lot of pure AI stocks out there, but there is Nvidia. Paul breaks down everything you need to know about the chip giant and its AI future.
You can still expect a lot of whipsaw price action, but Jon’s got three reasons to believe the worst may be over.