How to forecast the markets

Superforecasters are savants when it comes to which way the financial winds are blowing, so Reda’s unpicked how you can do like they do

How To Forecast The Markets Better Than Wall Street’s Been Doing

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Nvidia Could Be The Best Way To Invest In AI Right Now

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Get Ready For The Emerging Markets Era In Stocks

Two pharma giants have got breakthrough weight-loss treatments. So Luke’s looked at this industry, and whether it can add some heft to your portfolio.

Could These Obesity-Drug Stocks Make Your Portfolio Look Big?

Your Daily Brief For January 31st

Back in December, **JPMorgan** predicted that US stocks would gain 5% this year, economists were expecting the 10-year US bond yield to stick around 2%, and **Goldman Sachs** raised the prospect that bitcoin would hit $100,000. But six months later, US stocks are down 20%, the 10-year yield is at 3%, and bitcoin more than halved to around $21,000. The truth is, the pros on Wall Street have a terrible forecasting record, and all you need to do better is to follow five simple steps inspired by Philip Tetlock’s book *Superforecasting*.

# **Step 1: Define what you’re trying to forecast**

Imagine you came across a headline that says: **“Markets are significantly overvalued and are about to crash”**.

First things first, you need to understand what “markets are about to crash” actually means. 

Insight

contentPieceId

encryptedEmail

ContentPieceQuery

viewer

query ContentPieceQuery(
  $contentPieceId: String!
  $encryptedEmail: String
) {
  viewer {
    authorization {
      roles {
        isAnonymous
      }
      ...SingleContentPiece_authorization
    }
    content(encryptedEmail: $encryptedEmail) {
      ...SingleContentPiece_content_11DhN6
      contentPiece(contentPieceId: $contentPieceId) {
        __typename
        ...SingleContentPiece_contentPiece
        id
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  title
}

fragment Block_block on ContentPieceBlock {
  __isContentPieceBlock: __typename
  __typename
  ... on TextBlock {
    id
    ...TextBlock_block
  }
  ... on ImageBlock {
    id
    ...ImageBlock_block
  }
  ... on QuoteBlock {
    id
    ...QuoteBlock_block
  }
}

fragment ContentMetadata_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  byline
  consumptionTime
  dateUpdatedDisplay
  contentPieceType {
    name
  }
}

fragment ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  title
  imageForSeo: headerImage {
    url: full
  }
  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
  id
  ... on PublicContentPiece {
    globalContentPieceId
  }
  byline
  seoTitle
  searchDescription
  canonicalLink
}

fragment ExploreMore_content_3M8Ve6 on Content {
  moreContentPiecesOfSameType: contentPieces(first: 5, filterByTypeOfId: $contentPieceId) {
    edges {
      node {
        title
        id
        slug
        subtitle
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment ImageBlock_block on ImageBlock {
  image {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  alt
  caption
}

fragment ListenButton_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  id
  title
  trackingTitle
  subtitle
  readingTime
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
}

fragment MainContentSection_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...ContentMetadata_contentPiece
  ...ListenButton_contentPiece
  ...ContentPieceSEO_contentPiece
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  title
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  subtitle
  firstPublishedAt
  readingTime
  isPremium
  deepLink
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  id
  byline
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  blocks {
    __typename
    ...Block_block
    ... on Node {
      __isNode: __typename
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment MoreContentSection_content_11DhN6 on Content {
  ...ExploreMore_content_3M8Ve6
  mostRecentBrief: contentPieces(first: 1, excludeId: $contentPieceId, contentType: "DAILY_BRIEF") {
    edges {
      node {
        id
        ...SingleContentLarge_contentPiece
      }
    }
  }
  mostRecentInsight: contentPieces(first: 1, excludeId: $contentPieceId, contentType: "INSIGHT") {
    edges {
      node {
        id
        ...SingleContentLarge_contentPiece
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment QuoteBlock_block on QuoteBlock {
  quote
  caption
}

fragment ServerImage_image on URLImage {
  full
  srcSet
}

fragment SingleContentLarge_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  title
  byline
  consumptionTime
  headerImage {
    ...ServerImage_image
  }
  hasChapters
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
  id
  slug
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_authorization on Authorization {
  roles {
    isPreviewingContentAllowance
    isPreviewing
    isAnonymous
    hasPremiumSubscription
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_contentPiece on ContentPieceInterface {
  __isContentPieceInterface: __typename
  ...AudioOnlyBanner_contentPiece
  ...MainContentSection_contentPiece
  globalContentPieceId
  trackingTitle
  isPremium
  hasBlocks
  hasChapters
  hasAudio
  contentPieceType {
    name
    trackingName
  }
  chapters {
    __typename
    id
    slug
  }
}

fragment SingleContentPiece_content_11DhN6 on Content {
  ...MoreContentSection_content_11DhN6
  anonymousUserHasPremium
}

fragment TextBlock_block on TextBlock {
  textMarkdown
}


How To Forecast The Markets Better Than Wall Street’s Been Doing

Step 1: Define what you’re trying to forecast

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Your Daily Brief For January 31st

Could These Obesity-Drug Stocks Make Your Portfolio Look Big?